Thanks from Warren Buffet!

Warren Buffet wrote a "thank you" letter to the U.S. Government which appeared in the New York Times (see Pretty Good for Government Work). It it, he reminds us that about two years ago our economy was on the brink of disaster. We looked to the government to remedy the situation and it responded with action. I agree with Buffet in this case. While the economy is not where we would like it, where business-oriented regulations are not what we might imagine, and many still lack jobs, the situation is not what it was two years back.

- JSM

Commerce Hums Along Even in Hard Economic Times

We hear much news about the trouble with the economy. In today's news alone, there were concerns about cooling in auto manufacturing, losses in technology, slower manufacturing in New York, and double dip risks in Europe. Alongside the financial turmoil and worries, Bloomberg yesterday ran a piece on parents who must not be overly concerned about such things. Apparently, there is quite the market for designer clothing for children, including a $750 Burberry trench coat! Sale of designer coats and jackets for children is expected to be up a whopping 12% this year. Luxury goods generally are expected to be up 10%. Apparently, there are nice Gucci lines for pets as well . . . Not bad in a year with worldwide GDP quite low (see, EU Raises Italian 2010 GDP, Canada's GDP Growth Sets, China's GDP Slows, Oil Spill May End Up Lifting GDP Slightly).

While I am a believer in doing my part for the economy, my group of three kiddos (3, 5 and 13) are not partaking in these really cool clothing options! Not only is this a really lot of money, but my kids grow way too fast for this extravagance! Hope that those who are buying designer children's clothing are not financing the purchases on a credit card. Consumers living beyond their means certainly contributed to the current financial downturn.

- JSM

Bernanke Speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming

In case you missed it, Ben Bernanke spoke at the Kansas City Federal Reserve annual meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming (see transcript). The bottom line: Bernanke is not too concerned about the slowdown in growth and we should expect some relief in 2011 and beyond in the economy. Basically, just wait it out and hope for the best.

For a recap of the speech,

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

-JSM

Finally a Homeowner in Florida

Yes, I finally closed on a home in South Florida. Now that the boxes are unpacked (well, mostly), some thoughts on the process. Not to deter any wanting to purchase a home, the real estate market in South Florida is particularly daunting if you are wanting a mortgage (See, South Florida Mortgage Rates At Record Lows, but Who Can Get Them?). And, I was moving to a new area to start new employment adding complication to any mortgage application. The loan approval came less than a week before closing, and I breathed a great sigh of relief that the worst part was over (the tax returns, w-2s, document requests, interviews, etc.).

By the time I closed, though, new lending requirements meant a change in lending product and another round of documents! The closing was also delayed a few days. Since our family's belongings were already en route from two far reaching parts of the country (Oregon and Massachusetts), we were faced with the prospect of furniture arriving before the home closed. While it all worked out well in the end, there was much stress and the specter that it might not close at all. The lender's agent seemed unprepared for the changes in requirements for home mortgages that are ever changing, so that the lender was working last minute on details that should have been addressed much earlier in the process (i.e., calling for employment verifications for all employers for the last 5 years the day before closing). I thought to myself, with all this headache, who would actually want to buy a home in South Florida!

So, what does this all say? It seems to me a sign that changing, strict credit standards will impede the real estate market. (See, Borrowers Hit New Home-Loan Hurdles). While credit standards for home loans may have been too easy, they might now be too hard. Of course, the Florida market still has signs of distress, so it may be one of the last markets to see easing of credit standards in real estate. An excess of care and caution of lenders, though, impedes their own business and the real estate market as a whole, making recovery further off. When I listen to NPR on the drive to the office in the morning and hear reports of the sluggish real estate market, I am not surprised. The core of the problem is confidence in borrowers and the real estate market as a whole. While those in the real estate industry attempt to be optimistic, more marked recovery would seem to require a level of confidence that does not permeate South Florida at this time.

As for me, I'll be finishing off the last of my boxes for another week or so . . . glad that I can now send in that first mortgage payment next month!

- JSM

Tales of a Homeowner Wanna-Be

Part of my adventure of moving to Miami, Florida to join the faculty at St. Thomas University School of Law involves the purchase of a new home. Yes, I've already written about the beginning of this journey (See Tales of a Prospective Homebuyer). That was back in April! So, what is it really like? Three months later? Well, I am just a week out of closing and don't have an "official," "final" loan approval yet for the mortgage. There was the "first application," the phone interview, the mass of financial documents for the last two years, the changing loan terms, the worry over the home appraising (this is South Florida after all).

Other parts of this adventure? I since discovered that the seller had been behind on taxes and the house was listed for auction, but was just brought current in the last two weeks. There is also a pending issue on a leaking roof that I was told was fixed, but when I had the roof re-inspected found out the broken parts were just glued together! My prospective insurance agent raised the hazard insurance premium by 50% on the spot, even though his quote was only two weeks ago (found new insurance agent!). The new challenge is the documentation on the purchase funds for the mortgage lender, which is very particular.

Seriously, the days of no-documentation loans seem to be past, as far as I can see (See, The Basics: No Doc Mortgages, MSN). So, things are naturally hard out there from a loan perspective. Perhaps they should be . . . The large number of foreclosures and short sales out there also make it difficult for home buyers, even though prices can sometimes be favorable. My limited experience in shopping around for lenders indicates that while mortgage rates might be good (See, Mortgage Rates on 30-Year US Loans Fall to Record), the lenders are being more careful than in the past making it harder to purchase even if you want to in this market. But, with the housing market plunging after the government incentives for home buyers ended in April (See, Pending Home Sales Fell off A Cliff, CNN), one might expect things to be easier on buyers.

In some ways it is easier than back in April. For instance, it was much easier to secure a contract on a home than a couple of months ago. But closing is still difficult. While I have every hope that the home will close on time, my skills as a detail, paper-collecting transactional lawyer have served me well! There is now talk of what "time of day" we might be closing, so the hope is that this homeowner wanna-be will actually be just plain homeowner soon.

-jsm

So as Starbucks goes goes the economy?

Is Starbuck's success an indicator for the economy? Bloomberg had an interesting article today suggesting just that (See Starbuck's Results Prove Recession's Over). From the piece by Dan Mitchell:

Traffic in Starbucks (SBUX) stores increased by 3 percent. And the average bill grew by 4 percent. More people are going to Starbucks, and, once there, they're spending more. This marks the first time that traffic has grown in more than three years—since before the recession began. The company's operating margins were the highest in its history, growing to 13.4 percent. Of course, that's thanks largely to massive store closings and layoffs during the recession. But it can't happen without top-line growth.

While I'm not convinced that coffee sales at Starbuck's necessarily indicate market recovery, there might be an aspect to higher sales of comfort items that does indicate healthier markets. After all, when the economy is bad, the $3-5 cup of coffee might be the first thing to go for tight-budgeting consumers. More of a luxury or discretionary item that returns when finances are better. The return of consumer spending on discretionary items seems like a good thing. No hard science here, but the idea makes sense.

- JSM

Tales of a Prospective Homebuyer

Today's news reported that the tax credit is helping boost the market for existing home sales (See Bloomberg, U.S. Economy: Tax Credit Helping). The market for existing homes was up 6.8% in March. The homebuyer incentive runs through the end of April and provides an $8000 credit for new home buyers and $6500 for some other homebuyers who meet income requirements. (See, IRS: First-Time Homebuyer Credit).

The housing market is struggling for many reasons that affect current home owners and buyers alike. We are in the market for a new home as I will be joining the faculty at St. Thomas University in Miami next school year. So, we are looking for a home in South Florida. Weston, Florida to be precise. While I don't own a home in my name, I am not eligible for the tax credit as my spouse owns a home in Boston that we now rent out. And the income requirements on the lower credit put that out of reach. But, I am not complaining about that here today. So, what is it like to purchase a home in this market?

After spending a week over spring break viewing homes and making offers on several, we haven't yet secured a home. Well, we don't really need one until August anyways, but shouldn't this be easy with a housing market in crisis? The good news is that existing home sales in Florida are also up 24% over March 2009. (See, Florida's Existing Home). But, homeowners are in crisis in South Florida, with projections that recovery will not hit there meaningfully until 2011. See, Bloomberg: Florida's Housing Market). Despite the increase in sales, prices are down 3% over last year. The number of foreclosures and short sales are high. Due to depressed prices, people who don't have to sell their homes are not entering the market.

So, what did we find? A low inventory of existing homes and not too much to look at. Many homeowners in South Florida seem to have either bought high and are under water or bought low but have taken out additional mortgages on their homes making them underwater. That all ends with even homeowners who are not in trouble with their banks having difficulty selling because they either need to find a buyer who will way overpay over market (not overly likely) or come to a home sale closing with lots of cash. We saw plenty of homes where the seller must ask an over-market price because their mortgages are high, they don't have cash to close and don't qualify for a short sale. Other home owners have cash to close but are bitter at having to spend it this way on a home that is worth much less than two years prior.

Add to all of this short sales and foreclosures. We went to see one shortsale home that was unapproved by the bank where as we walked through the home the agent told us of all the things the current owner was going to remove from the home (appliances, light fixtures . . .). Shortsales can also take months to close if they ever do. We also saw a foreclosed home where the prior owner trashed the home before leaving, taking fixtures, ac units and just doing general damage to the home probably costing $100k to fix. (See, Some Ex-Owners Trashing; Owners of Foreclosed Homes Steal Appliances). Challenges indeed as this is more than I am interested in tackling at this point in time.

I've purchased homes before and always found it a pretty easy process. Most people tend to act rationally and agreeing to a deal for a home after some negotiation. While I am sure we will secure a home before August, tackling South Florida's real estate challenges is not the same as prior home purchases. If the federal government does not extend the tax credit, we may see this little increase dissipate. There are also plenty of foreclosures still in the pipeline that will continue to depress prices and hamper the market for some time. Homebuyers can purchase, but the market is just not the same.

- JSM